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Reliability analysis of flood defence systems

H.M.G.M. Steenbergen1, B.L. Lassing2, A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder1,3 and P.H. Waarts1
1  TNO Building & Construction Research, Delft, The Netherlands
2  Road and Hydraulic Engineering Institute, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and
   Water Management, Delft, The Netherlands
3  Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

In recent years an advanced program for the reliability analysis of flood defence systems has been under development. This paper describes the global data requirements for the application and the set-up of the models. The analysis generates the probability of system failure and the contribution of each element and parameter of the system to this probability. Thus weak links in the flood defence system can be identified, as well as the mechanisms and parameters that contributes most to the probability of failure.

Key words: PC-Ring, dike failure, flood defence system, probability of failure, correlation in time and space, system reliability